January 25, 2018  Layover in Oleta

The forecast is for WIND for at least the next 10 days.  Looks like I'm going to have some time on my hands.  But like my friend Fred pointed out, I could be here where it's 70 degrees with 25 knot winds or I could be in the Bahamas where it's 75 or 80 and 30 knot winds.  Either way, I'm sort of stuck on the boat. 

So, I thought I'd report on what I've learned about forecasting over the last 6 to 8 months.  Weather is a huge part of a trip like the one I'm on - on the ICW but especially for going "outside/offshore".  But it is especially important for crossing over from Florida to the Bahamas.  I'm still on a learning curve with this so I'd really welcome any feedback on what I may be missing or doing wrong.  I'm currently in North Miami so this may change after I get to the Bahamas.

This is a little backwards (and maybe premature) but I'll give my conclusion FIRST:

I've found that the forecasts available from several websites are the easiest to understand and reliable of all the sources I've tried.  These sites employ forecasters whose job it is to listen to and look at tons of raw weather data published by NOAA and the US Coast Guard and present it in a format for lay people like me.  I can't be alone or these new sites wouldn't keep appearing the way they have been.

If you are not a cruiser, you may want to stop reading here - the following is sure to bore you.

And please note that sources you might use at home, like FM/AM radio and TV, are not even a consideration on the boat.

First, here is a list of the methods/devices for obtaining weather info.

1.       VHF radio - 20 mile range

2.      Short wave single side band radio - I paid $200 for a really nice radio almost a year ago.

3.      Phone via wifi or data - 10 to 20 mile range

4.      Laptop,tablet - via wifi and/or data via phone's hot spot

From these devices, I'm able to get forecasts in the following formats (in no order):

1.       NOAA voice (via VHF radio) - NOAA has large antennas up and down the east coast from which they broadcast a short summary of on and offshore weather conditions. It comes over 7 different channels and repeats itself about every 10 minutes.  I don't consider these very helpful but I'm not real sure why.  I often get distracted when they are talking about weather that is not relevant to me and then miss it when it is.  Also, the new radio uses a fair amount of power (the handheld vhf) would help with that but has less range.  I usually use this when it's all I have available.

2.      Cruisers Nets (via VHF radio).  These are primarily in large population areas of the Bahamas (Georgetown, Marsh Harbor, etc.).  They are usually on channel 68 every morning at 8am.  Everyone in the area listens in and has a one hour chat session that includes weather.  I'm looking  forward to listening to these but I'm not one that likes to move with the crowds (that could change).

3.      Chris Parker (via SSB radio) is a weather router.  He is well known to cruisers.  His claim to fame is being able to tell a given cruiser when and which way to go and when to stay put.  For a sizeable ($50 per month?), he will give you customized advice via email, SSB radio, etc. just for your location and tentative plans.  He is located near Orlando and his (open air) broadcasts are supposed to reach the Florida coast, the Bahamas, and the Caribbean.  He broadcasts on a set frequencies and on a widely published scheduled every day.  I purchased the SSB receiver primary to listen to Chris Parker and had high hopes that he would be one of my primary sources of weather.  So far, I've listened for his broadcasts 15 to 20 times, up and down the east coast and have been able to barely make out what he is saying 2 or 3 times.  My friend Bruce told me his signal jumps over Bimini.  I think it has jumped over 90% of the places I've been. 

4.      US Coast Guard high frequency voice (via SSB radio)-  This is broadcast out of somewhere on the Chesapeake and from New Orleans on a published schedule and frequencies.  I was never able to get it to work at home but just tried the New Orleans frequency this morning and it comes in great.  The bad news is that 90% of what they report is giving longitude and latitude.  Since I don't have these well engrained in my head, it is a little hard to follow.  It is almost amusing to listen to - sort of like reading html for a web page - gibberish. 

5.      US Coast Guard Weather Fax (via SSB radio) - this is another method I had high hopes for.  The Coast Guard publishes a schedule of times and frequencies when they broadcast weather maps via facsimile.  When you listen to it, it has all the whistling and screeching you are used to hearing when you hear a fax machine over the phone.  It is very distinct. In order to turn all that noise into a map, I downloaded an app to my tablet. I tried it at home with fair to poor results.  The maps were barely readable - due to background noise in the radio signal.  It may work better here in Florida where the signal comes from New Orleans.  The maps are for current conditions, and forecasts for 24, 48, and 96 hours into the future. The problem I have with this is that I'm not good at reading weather maps.

6.      Marv's Weather (website requiring internet) - This is a great service but is only available when the internet is available (by wifi or phone data). He publishes an email daily at about 7pm with a 7 day forecast for wind and waves at about a hundred locations up and down the east coast and the Bahamas.  The locations are in categories (eg. S. Florida).  The one I'm focused on now is Miami to Bimini.  It is very easy to read and interpret and is free.

7.      PredictWind (via the web) - A great service for graphically displaying forecasts.  I downloaded the software onto my PC and tablet.  Once every few days, I'll download the GRIB (forecast data) files that the program uses to display wind, waves , temps, etc. for the next week.  I had to pay an annual fee of $50 to get the waves. 

8.      PassageWeather.com - (via the web).  This is a great site with all sorts of data, displayed numerous ways.  It boarders on being too (for me) busy.  One thing I do like about it (besides being free) is that it allows you to download zipped grib files for, not only wind and waves, but also for Gulf Stream forecasts. 

9.      Windy.com (via the web) - This is a very cool site in that it graphically displays (using color and hundreds of arrows) the wind direction and strength.  It's very intuitive and simple on the surface but has lots of tools that I've just begun to explore.

10.  NOAA Tides and Current (via the web).  NOAA has weather buoys all up and down the east coast (there are 10 or 20 in the Chesapeake too).  They broadcast (real time) current conditions.  It does not give forecasts - only current conditions.  NOAA displays the data in the form of a histogram showing the wind direction and strength as a function of time.  I look at this all the time at home and Bruce suggested I monitor the data from the buoy just off Key Biscayne when I'm thinking about crossing.

11.  NOAA has some good near shore and Atlantic Marine forecast sites with maps and text forecasts.  Again, it requires you to be able to interpret the maps.  Thanks Steve!

12.  L-36 Weather (web only) -  this is a great site that Bruce told me about recently.  I had been aware of it but, like many websites, it has soooo much information that I never really found the weather info. - until recently.  It converts all the NOAA and Coast Guard raw data into a text format that is very well written and informative.  Thanks Bruce!

13.  Accuweather APP  (web only) - this is a great app/site.  It uses a relatively small amount of data and I check it routinely for current conditions, hourly and daily forecasts. It is also my source for weather radar.  If anyone knows of any good radar only sites (I know there are a bunch) - please let me know.  I love being able to "see" what is coming my way!

14.  Bahamas Met Office (web only) - haven't used yet but read somewhere or was told it is good.

15.  Barometer Bob (web only) - For Bahamas only. Ditto 13 above.